Vendas no Mês das Mães devem ter leve alta de 0,5% comparado com período pré-pandemia, aponta Fecomércio-BA
De acordo com projeções da Fecomércio-BA, os setores mais relacionados ao Dia das Mães devem vender em maio R$ 4,2 bilhões – 0,5% a mais do que igual período de 2019. Isso mesmo, 2019 e não 2020. Os meses de março a maio do ano passado foram bastante afetados pela pandemia. Por conta disso, a base de comparação estaria muito baixa, o que levaria a variações positivas acentuadas.
Conforme explica o consultor econômico da Fecomércio-BA, Guilherme Dietze, “para melhor entender o cenário atual, o recomendado é fazer a comparação com um mês de vendas normal, ou seja, optou-se pelo mês de maio pré-pandemia, em 2019”.
O desempenho pode ser considerado relativamente positivo diante da atual circunstância. Porém, o detalhe é que dos quatro setores analisados, há um equilíbrio entre variações positivas e negativas. No campo positivo estão os setores de eletroeletrônicos com alta prevista de 10,8% na comparação com o mesmo mês de 2019. A segunda alta esperada é dos Supermercados, de 9,2%.
“São segmentos a serem beneficiados pela nova injeção do auxílio emergencial, em média de R$ 250, mas que vem se destacando ao longo dos últimos meses, sobretudo o de eletroeletrônicos, por conta do bom momento do mercado imobiliário, em que as pessoas estão investindo em computadores e televisores para adaptação ao novo normal”, explica o especialista.
Os supermercados devem ter aumento de preço por conta da alta de preços dos produtos. “Este setor também conta com a ajuda do medo de sair de casa, de ir a bares e restaurantes para celebrar o domingo festivo. A tendência é de que as famílias façam uma reunião mais íntima, comprem alimentos e façam a refeição em casa”.
Guilherme avisa que não há como captar, através desta pesquisa, quais os itens mais procurados para os Dia das Mães. Porém, tradicionalmente, as pesquisas de mercado feitas para a época, sempre apontam para bens não duráveis (roupas e calçados) como preferência do dia.
No entanto, o setor de vestuário foi um dos mais afetados pela pandemia. E não conseguiu se recuperar em nenhum momento desde março do ano passado. A expectativa é que haja uma queda nas vendas de 29,8% na comparação com maio de 2019.
Já as lojas de farmácias e perfumarias, por mais que a projeção seja de queda de 11,7%, o cenário não é dos piores. “Neste caso, é só um caso de base de comparação mais alta, pois o setor apresentou bom desempenho ao longo do ano passado, principalmente no início da pandemia com as pessoas buscando itens como álcool em gel e antialérgicos”, conclui Guilherme.
Será mais um Dia das Mães atípico, ainda sob os receios da pandemia do coronavírus. O cenário atual é relativamente mais favorável que em 2020, pois as pessoas já têm muito mais conhecimento sobre proteção e o medo acaba sendo menor. Os canais de vendas alternativos, como o e-commerce, conseguiram se estabelecer com agilidade e qualidade na entrega.
“Ainda há muito chão pela frente para os empresários voltarem a se planejar e comemorar um sucesso de vendas no mês que sempre foi o melhor para o varejo no primeiro semestre”, acredita Guilherme.
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